New Orleans Saints (6-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-3) Preview

Coming off a successful two-game road trip, the Falcons are heading home for three straight games and one of their biggest test of the season, the New Orleans Saints. The Saints enter this game having won their last two match-ups in Atlanta by 3 points; however, the Falcons will look to stop that streak from extending any further. With a win, the Falcons will move into first place of the NFC South for the first time since the 2010 season and could be a key victory for the rest of the Falcons season. Despite the Falcons going 2-4 since 2008 against this team,. Atlanta have played them closer than any opponent around the NFL. Every match-up have been determined by 8 points or less over the past three seasons and this game is emerging as one of the best rivalries in the league and the game will continue to live up to its intensity as two NFC playoff contenders will battle at the Georgia Dome. In this blog, I will point out all of the keys to victory, key match-ups and my final prediction of the Saints vs Falcons game. 




Keys to Victory over the New Orleans Saints:


1. Balance your offensive game plan

During the Falcons three game winning streak, Atlanta's offense have returned to their successful 2010 strategy and this have resulted in the Falcons returning to their winning ways as the team is scoring an average of (31.6) points per game and this is due to their consistency on offense. In order for the Falcons offense to take flight, you must establish your dominance on the ground with Michael Turner. Turner is putting together a great season, at this point of the season, Turner rushed for (692) yards and scored (7) rushing touchdowns, which is ranked (7th) in the NFL rushing and tied for (3rd) in touchdowns. Over the past few games against the Saints, Turner have averaged (94) yards, (4.3) yards per carry, and a touchdown, and he is one of the biggest mismatches for the Saints defense. Also, the Falcons must continue to get their passing attack on track and Sunday will be the perfect chance to test the Saints secondary. New Orleans secondary have not been effective as in previous years. The Saints is ranked (25th) in the NFL with most touchdown passes allowed (14) and have only made (4) interceptions this season. This will give Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense an opportunity to have a breakout performance against the Saints.


2. The Falcons defense must force Drew Brees into turnovers:

Atlanta's defense have the golden opportunity to continue their impressive stretch against Brees, who leads the NFL in passing yards with (3,004), ranks second in touchdown passes (21), and despite posting those great numbers, have encountered issues with turnovers. Brees is currently second in the league with interceptions thrown (11) only behind Chargers quarterback Phillip Rivers. On Sunday, he will take on a Falcons defense, which ranks (7th) in the league with (10) interceptions and have not surrendered more than 17 points over their three game winning streak.  The Falcons defense must continue to apply a lot of pressure at the quarterback and make it difficult for Drew Brees to have any sort of impact on the game. The Falcons also need to get the Saints off the field on third down, which was a problem for this young defense early in the season; however, as the season progressed, their efficiency on defense have improved. On Sunday, this defense will be tested by an offense which ranks first in the NFL with third down conversions at (56%) and in order to prevent the Saints from extending drives, Atlanta must force New Orleans to three and outs. 


3. Contain Darren Sproles from making a huge impact for the Saints offense:

Sproles, the former Chargers running back was acquired in the off-season and he is by far the best free agent acquisition of the 2011 season. Heading into week 10, Sproles have rushed for (347) yards and scored (2) rushing touchdowns and have recorded (446) receiving yards and scored (3) touchdowns for New Orleans. The all-purpose running back is a huge portion of the Saints offense, similar to what Reggie Bush did for their passing attack and the Falcons defense must rise to the challenge against this quick running back and the linebackers such as Sean Weatherspoon will have to contain Sproles from making a huge impact on the game. This season, the Falcons have struggled with explosive backs such as Lesean Mccoy and Matt Forte; however, they have to apply he pressure towards Brees and limit Sproles from having an opportunity to produce a big play on offense.


4. The Falcons must play a solid third quarter in order to win: 

This quarter have been a huge problem for the Falcons in 2011. Over the first eight games, Atlanta has been outscored 78-27 by their opponents and this have cost the Falcons to either play from behind or lose a game. The Falcons can't play conservative against the Saints in the third quarter or they could experience a major breakdown against one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. This season, the New Orleans Saints have outscored their opponents in the third quarter 64-33 and you have to contain Drew Brees from having a great second half. 




5. The 12th man/woman must make it difficult on the Saints:

The Georgia Dome must be loud and ready to distract the Saints offense. Atlanta Falcons fans need to give the extra boost for the Falcons on defense and make it a very hostile environment on Sunday and make it difficult for Drew Brees and force some offensive penalties and false starts. Last season, the Georgia Dome was rowdy and gave the Falcons defense an extra boost and kept the team in the game most of the day. The crowd must "Rise Up" and "Defend The Dome" on Sunday afternoon and help the Falcons earn a win. 




KEY MATCH-UPS:


1.Tony Gonzalez vs Roman Harper:

This is one of the biggest mismatches of the game for the Saints defense because safety Roman Harper, who replaced Darren Sharper, is struggling to defend some tight ends such as Jeremichael Finley, Kellen Winslow, and James Casey and this could work in Matt Ryan's favor on Sunday. The Falcons must include Gonzalez in their passing attack in order to establish the effective passing game on the shaky Saints secondary.


2. Jimmy Graham vs Falcons safeties:

The Falcons defense must contain Jimmy Graham; however, the Falcons defense have struggled against tight ends and this will be their biggest test to shut down the Saints offense. Jimmy Graham is the leading receiver on the Saints with (791) yards and (5) touchdown receptions, which leads all tight ends in the NFL and his production have helped Drew Brees have one of his best seasons in his NFL career. Thomas Decoud and William Moore must make it hard for Graham to have any effect for the Saints offensive attack and the linebackers must prevent Graham from having a huge game. 




3.Lance Moore vs Kelvin Hayden:

This match-up will be tested a few times during the Falcons vs Saints game because Moore  have always produced big numbers against Atlanta's secondary. In the past four games, Moore have averaged (77.0) receiving yards and a touchdown against the Falcons. Drew Brees attacked the middle of the field many times with Moore and now that Atlanta have acquired Kelvin Hayden, this match-up could take center stage as Brees will attempt some passes across the field and give Moore the chance to shine as a slot receiver.




4.  Julio Jones vs Jabari Greer:

This will be the Saints first time facing the Falcons young and explosive wide receiver. Coming off his biggest game of the season in Indianapolis, Jones will look to continue his great rookie season on Sunday. Jones have (489) yards receiving and (2) touchdown receptions and will give Atlanta the opportunity to have a big play maker with speed at receiver against Saints corner back Jabari Greer. The veteran corner is not having one of his best seasons and now, he is presented the task to contain this young receiver from having a huge impact on Sunday. For the first time, the Falcons have a receiver that can create big plays from short passes on the Falcons offense. 


5. Falcons defensive line vs Saints offensive line:

This match up will be key for the Falcons as they will look towards blitzing Drew Brees and creating sack opportunities for their defense. Atlanta is starting to come along and they will need for John Abraham to open up opportunities for the Falcons to sack Brees against a shaky Saints offensive line that have surrendered (19) sacks this year, which is (13th) most in the NFL. In order for the Falcons to win on Sunday, you must make it tough on the Saints entire offense from start to finish.


PREDICTION:
This game will be intense from start to finish as both the Saints and the Falcons will battle for first place in the NFC South. I see Michael Turner going for over 100 yards on the ground and a huge day from Tony Gonzalez. Atlanta will force Drew Brees to throw at least one interception and Matt Bryant will hit a clutch field goal late in the 4th quarter to give Atlanta a 27-17 win and move into 1st place of the NFC South. Until the post-game blog, FALCONS RISE UP!


FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: ATLANTA 27 NEW ORLEANS 17