Indianapolis Colts (0-8) vs Atlanta Falcons (4-3) Preview

Coming off their bye week, the Atlanta Falcons (4-3) are beginning their second half of the season against one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, the Indianapolis Colts (0-7). This will be the final road game of the month for Atlanta before they begin their three game homestand. The Falcons are on a two game winning streak and have placed themselves back in the race for the NFC South. Mike Smith is 2-1 after the bye week. Historically, Atlanta have struggled against the Colts, their all-time series record is 1-12, earning their only victory in 1998. Beating the Colts would mark the first time in franchise history that the Falcons won against Indianapolis away from the Georgia Dome. This week also brings the return of rookie sensation Julio Jones, after missing the last two games due to a hamstring injury. Now, I will give some keys to victory, key match-ups and my final prediction of the Falcons-Colts game.

KEYS TO VICTORY:

1.Establish the run with Michael Turner:

In the past two weeks, the Falcons have seen their running game return to 2010 form and they must continue to establish their dominance on the ground on Sunday. In the past two games, Michael Turner is averaging (130.5) yards rushing per game and (4.8) yards per carry and was a huge contributor to both of the Falcons victories. Michael Turner, whether many fans want to admit it or not, is the key to the Falcons offense having success against some of the best teams in the NFL. This week, the Falcons have an opportunity to continue their dominance on the ground against the Colts defense. Heading into this match-up, the Colts are (31st) in the NFL in rushing defense and have surrendered (1,152) yards and opposing running backs average (144.0) yards each game. This is the third straight game that the Falcons will face one of the league's worst rushing defenses and Michael Turner should have a huge game coming off the bye week. Throughout the season, the Colts have allowed running backs such as Ben Tate, Legarrette Blount, Jackie Battle, Peyton Hillis, and Mark Ingram to post at least (90) yards rushing in their games against the Colts. The Colts will also face Turner, who ranks (7th) in the NFL in rushing yards (621) and tied for (5th) with rushing touchdowns (6) and throughout his eight year career, the Colts have allowed big plays from Michael Turner against them, inlcuding a 73-yard touchdown in his rookie season with the San Diego Chargers back in 2004.

2. Matt Ryan must have a breakout performance against the Colts defense:

On Sunday, this match-up could produce the best passing game of the season for Matt Ryan. Ryan is having a decent season; however, he have not had a breakout performance in 2011 and this would be his chance against the Colts. This season, Ryan is ranked (14th) in the NFL with (9) touchdown passes, which is a decrease from last season and have also thrown (8) interceptions, which ranks (7th) in the NFL; however, as the season progresses, those numbers should get better for Matt Ryan and this week, he can have the best game of 2011. The Colts defense have surrendered the most touchdown passes in the league (15) and opposing quarterbacks averages QB ratings of (111.2) which is the worst in the NFL and this could be a huge advantage for the Falcons passing attack that will now include Julio Jones in the lineup for the first time since Week 5. Despite a shaky start to his fourth year at quarterback, expect Matt Ryan to continue to improve not only his stats but his decision making during the game. Opposing quarterbacks are having a huge impact on the Colts defense this season and Sunday's game provides the perfect opportunity for Ryan to get back on track and post huge numbers for the Falcons offense. Quarterbacks have also completed a staggering (73.0) percent of their passes and have only thrown (3) total interceptions against this team. 

3. Expect the Falcons defense to have a huge game against the Colts 

As the season have progressed, the Falcons defense is getting better and surrendering less than (20) points per game. Heading into the Colts game, the Falcons are ranked  (17th) in the NFL in scoring defense allowing (23.3) points per contest, but their production continues to improve over the past few weeks.  Atlanta is facing an offense that have yet to score 20 points in a game this season and ranks (30th) in the NFL in points scored per game (15.1). The Colts offense to this point is a turnover machine, Indianapolis ranks (29th) in the NFL with their turnover ratio (-7) and they will face a Falcons defense that have forced a turnover in each game dating back to the 2009 season. The Falcons ranks (7th) in the NFL with nine interceptions and with four forced fumbles. Atlanta's defense is also one of the best rushing defenders in the league as they currently rank (5th) in the NFL allowing only (98.4) yards per game. The Falcons need to continue to reduce their third down percentage allowed to their opponents this season. Atlanta ranks seventh in the NFL with (44%) allowed which gives teams the chance to extend drives and keep the defense on the field; however, they are facing a Colts offense that ranks (17th) in the league with third down percentage completed at (36%) so the Falcons must keep them from having any extra impact on the game. 

4.Limit offensive penalties against the Colts

The Falcons offensive line have encountered problems trying to contain their composure during games as they are forcing themselves into many penalties. Two weeks ago in their win against the Detroit Lions, Atlanta was penalized a season high (11) times and the Falcons can't succumb to the same mistakes on the road in Indianapolis because this prevents your offense from having effective offensive drives and can force Atlanta's offense to have a hard time on Sunday . The Falcons already have (47) penalties through seven games on offense, which is very high for this team who committed the lowest amount of penalties in the NFL last season (58). Atlanta is coming along as a good offensive line; however, this is a serious issue that have to be addressed before next week's game against the Saints. 




KEY MATCH-UPS:


1.Will Svitek vs Dwight Freeney:

With starting lineman Sam Baker out three to four weeks, the responsibility to protect Matt Ryan's blindside is now up to third-year offensive lineman Svitek. In the win against Detroit, with the exception of causing Matt Ryan to trip during a play in the third quarter, he was exceptional and did a great job protecting Ryan against a tough Lions defense. On Sunday, he will take on one of the most feared defensive ends in the NFL, Dwight Freeney. Freeney, despite his team struggling to win games, have recorded (4.5) sacks and forced two fumbles and can still cause havoc in any opposing backfield.  




2. Roddy White vs Jerraud Powers:

This could be a major mismatch for the Colts as their third-year cornerback faces another elite wide receiver in Roddy White. Powers is having a tough time defending great NFL receivers such as Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, and  Mike Wallace in which this corner allowed over (100) yards receiving and the Falcons can use this match-up to get back on track in the passing game. Roddy White could have the biggest game of his 2011 season and could very well get the Falcons passing attack on track. Two weeks ago, the Saints attacked the young corner with all pro receiver Marques Colston as he posted (98) receiving yards and (2) touchdown receptions. I expect Matt Ryan to use this matchup to the Falcons offensive advantage and could be a factor that will lead them to victory. 


3. Dallas Clark vs. Falcons secondary:

Despite having a tough start to the season, Clark is still one of the best tight ends in the NFL and can have a major game at any point of the year. The Falcons defense have encountered a tough journey containing tight ends throughout the year. Sunday, the Falcons must contain the veteran tight end from providing any impact on the game. In his previous match-up against Atlanta, Clark  caught five passes for (49) yards and scored a touchdown reception that was crucial in a Colts victory in Atlanta. The Falcons linebacking core and safeties William Moore and Thomas Decoud must pressure the Colts and prevent this tight end from having a breakout game.


4. Reggie Wayne vs Brent Grimes:

After showing impressive outings against two of the best receivers in the NFL: Calvin Johnson and Steve Smith, Grimes is being placed on another elite receiver, Reggie Wayne. Wayne is having one of his worst seasons in his career; however, he is still looking for a breakout game in 2011 and Brent Grimes must limit him from having a big day for the Colts who is still searching for that first win of the season. Grimes have stood up to the challenge all season and I expect him to continue and contain elite receivers such as Wayne from having an impact on the game. In his previous game against Atlanta, Wayne was 


5. Dunta Robinson vs Pierre Garcon:

Dunta Robinson still have to face the challenge to defend Colts leading receiver, Pierre Garcon. Garcon is having a good season so far with (569) receiving yards, which ranks (9th) in the NFL and (4) touchdown receptions. Robinson must contain him from producing big numbers for the Colts offense on Sunday because Curtis Painter will target this matchup throughout the game and Robinson needs to step up and make the necessary plays to shut down the Colts passing attack. This matchup will be intriguing for the Colts on offense and Dunta Robinson can end any hopes of Garcon having a productive game against the Falcons defense. 










PREDICTION:
The Falcons will get a very productive day from Michael Turner, who will surpass the 100 yard rushing for the third game in a row and Matt Ryan will have his best passing game of the season .as the Falcons take a big win in Indianapolis and improves to (5-3). Until next time, FALCONS RISE UP!!!!!


FALCONS WIN 31-10