New York Giants (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (11-2) Preview

After a tough 30-20 division loss against the  Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon, the Atlanta Falcons return home to take on the defending Super Bowl Champions, the New York Giants. With three games remaining in the 2012 season, the Falcons return home to play the defending  Super Bowl champion New York Giants and look to earn revenge after last year's embarrassing playoff loss in New York.  This will be one of the biggest games of the season especially with the bitterness that all the Falcons players and fans have towards this team after losing the playoff game and watching this team go on to win Super Bowl XLVI. Expect to see both the Falcons and the Giants play with a chip on their shoulder and battle for a full 60 minutes. New York, coming off a huge 52-27 victory against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday enters this game with a one game lead in the NFC East and can't afford to take a loss as the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins are also in the hunt to win the division title with only three games remaining in the NFL season. The Giants will look to continue their push for another Super Bowl run against the Falcons on Sunday. As for the Falcons, with a victory and a little help, they could lock up the top seed in the NFC for the 2012 NFL Playoffs. Atlanta is also looking to earn their first victory against the "G-Men" since 2004 and to earn revenge after suffering an embarrassing 24-2 loss to the Giants in last season's Wild Card Playoffs. The Falcons also haven't earned a home victory against New York since 1978 and a victory on Sunday would end that drought as well. The all-time series against the Falcons and Giants is tied at 10-10. Sunday's contest will be a tough and competitive match-up against a veteran and Super Bowl winning football team; however, earning a win against the Giants will boost the confidence of the 2012 Atlanta Falcons as they look to make a run at a Super Bowl this season. Defeating the Giants could start a surge to the playoffs for the Falcons. At the very least an Atlanta victory could provide evidence that its poor effort in the 30-20 loss at Carolina was an let-down after a huge win against New Orleans two weeks ago. This is a huge game and will explain a lot about the Falcons progression as the Giants, who are battling for the playoffs and is a very good team in December, will bring their best; however, the Falcons must rise up to the challenge and earn a victory. Now, I will give my keys to victory against the Giants, match-ups to watch, and my final score prediction.


KEYS TO VICTORY:

1: Establish the Running Game Early:

One of Atlanta's biggest issues throughout the season have been their lack of running the football effectively; however, as the season comes to an end, it's imperative that the Falcons start finding ways to establish their dominance on the ground. On Sunday, Atlanta's facing a Giants defense which currently ranks (22nd) in rushing defense as they give up an average of (123.3) yards per game to their opponents and in four of the Giants five defeats , they have surrendered over (100) yards to their opposing running backs and their linebackers have struggled to contain running backs that possess an explosive asset to their game. On Sunday, the Falcons need to attack the Giants front line with their balanced running game from Michael Turner, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Jason Snelling. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter needs to give each back a set amount of carries because the Falcons will need to limit the aggression that the Giants defensive line will attempt to use against Atlanta's offensive line. Rodgers could have a huge game against their front seven and getting their ground game rolling will open up the Falcons offense to successfully throw the ball against this Giants secondary, who is opportunistic; however, they will surrender big plays as well. The Falcons also need to design plays which benefits each running back when they are receiving carries in the offense. For example, Michael Turner is a back who needs a full back to open lanes for him and can also run stretch plays successfully. Jacquizz Rodgers can cut-back and find lanes so they should use him in pitch plays and his explosive running style will keep the Giants defensive line's aggression down. With Jason Snelling, the Falcons can use him in multiple ways in the running game also. The rushing attack will be a huge key for Atlanta if they are going to win the football game.

2. Falcons defense must contain the Giants offense from long drives:

The Falcons need to force Eli Manning into short drives or three and outs in order to provide their offense with more opportunities to score. In the past two weeks, the Falcons defense  struggled getting off the field on third down. Against Carolina, the Panthers converted nine of their fifteen third down and that's another reason why their offense was effective in last week's loss and in the victory against New Orleans, the Saints converted seven of their fourteen attempts. On Sunday, Atlanta will get tested against yet another high-powered offense in the New York Giants, Atlanta must limit these long offensive drives. For the most part, the Falcons defense have performed very well; however, you have to limit the Giants offense from making a huge impact on Sunday's game because an elite quarterback like Eli Manning can get into a rhythm and carve any secondary in the NFL apart when given the opportunity. Atlanta is average to this point when it comes to getting off the field defensively in third down situations, ranking (23rd) in the NFL with (41%) of their opponent's third downs being converted and that's a major test against the Giants, who converts (41%) of their situations, which is tenth-best in the league. Atlanta's defense have been very consistent so far; however, against Eli Manning on Sunday, you must be ready to make the big stop or give the Falcons a boost when the time comes.The Falcons defensive front must apply pressure on the Giants offensive line, who is one of the best in the league. Entering the game, New York have surrendered the least amount of sacks with (15) and Manning have the second least QB hits taken throughout the NFL season with (40). If the Falcons defense can disrupt Eli Manning's rhythm, they could cause turnovers at an alarming rate because from week in and out, you never know which Eli Manning will show up on the field. Expect defensive coordinator Mike Nolan to disguise their defensive looks due to the success the Falcons defense had when they used this strategy against Drew Brees and Peyton Manning earlier this season. Atlanta also need to limit the effectiveness of Ahmad Bradshaw and David Wilson on Sunday afternoon because New York will attempt to establish a ground attack against the Falcons defense, who is having an inconsistent season as far as limiting the rushing attack. If Atlanta can contain their running game and force Eli Manning to throw the football most of the game, the Falcons defense will then have opportunities to make big plays against arguably one of the best offenses in the NFL today.  

3. Matt Ryan have to utilize all of his weapons in the offense and become less predictable:

With an aggressive Giants defensive line coming in on Sunday, Matt Ryan must spread the ball around  and make the Falcons offense tough to contain. Ryan have to use all of his weapons to their strengths and give the offense opportunities to have a big game against this Giants defense. Atlanta's offense is ranked (4th) in the NFL in passing yards per game with (289.2) yards per game and this offense can be one of the most explosive attacks around the league; however, you must allow all aspects of your passing game get involved  We are used to seeing Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez get their fair share of receptions in the Falcons offense; however, Atlanta needs to spread the ball to their other receivers and use other passing options. Harry Douglas is a tremendous slot receiver and can create big plays in the passing attack for the Falcons offense and against New York on Sunday, he could be a key contributor because the Giants secondary seemed to struggle against explosive players and "HD" could provide the spark the Falcons are looking for in the game. Atlanta needs to utilize Drew Davis as well because he's another receiver that can stretch the field and can make plays when called upon. Although Ryan is having his best season of his career, if he can get more of his weapons to evolve in Atlanta's passing attack, then, the Falcons will be a tough team to beat. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter also need to use the screen game and allow Ryan to take some shots down the field against a pretty shaky Giants secondary. The Falcons have three guys in Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez who are all defensive mismatches can create big plays for the offense; however, use all options in your passing attack and the team will be successful. The Falcons receiving core all possess the ability to turn any small pass into an impact play to extend drives or score points. 

4. Offense must start fast and score touchdowns in the red-zone:

The Falcons offense have went through their ups and downs on offense from the start; however, Atlanta must consistently find a way to start off fast and effective. Atlanta has a issue sometimes of starting off very slow and shaky or having a long stretch throughout the game when they can't move the football; however, against the Giants on Sunday, the Falcons need to get off to a great and balanced start and score points early. Also, the Falcons must convert those long drives into touchdowns because the Giants is a football team who can score fast and put the pressure on the opposing offense to respond fast. Atlanta's offense have been outstanding for the most part this season; however, the Falcons must address their efficiency within the 20-yard line. The Falcons have too much talent not to score more touchdowns within the red-zone, which is a struggle we've encountered from time to time throughout the 2012 campaign. Atlanta must work on mixing their plays when they are approaching the end zone because at times, the Falcons will throw in situations where they should run the football and the same situation when they made decisions to run the ball instead of utilizing their passing weapons such as Julio Jones, Roddy White or Tony Gonzalez. On Sunday, the Falcons could be in a position where scoring seven points will be the difference in the contest, especially if the New York Giants are scoring touchdowns and making Sunday's game very interesting. It's vitally important that Atlanta scores touchdowns and keep the pressure on the Giants offense throughout the football game. Another issue the Falcons must fix is their third down inefficiency they have encountered in the past few weeks against the Giants on Sunday; entering the game, Atlanta is ranked (3rd) in the NFL in converting third down opportunities at (45%); however, in the previous two games against the Saints and Panthers, Atlanta have struggled to extend their offensive drives as they were a horrific (1/11) against the Saints and in Sunday's loss against Carolina, they were only (2/8) and if you're not converting those chances against New York, you're rushing your defense back on the field and giving Eli Manning too many opportunities to score points. 

5. Battle of the trenches: Atlanta's offensive and defensive line must rise to the challenge and dominate:

On defense, the Falcons will have to step up to the challenge and get pressure after Eli Manning. During the regular season, the Falcons defense have endured a tough time remaining consistent when it came to their pass rush. Atlanta have made (28) sacks, which is ranked (19th) in the NFL; however, the defensive line needs to interrupt Eli Manning from having an effective day in the passing game for the Giants offense. The Falcons are facing one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season in Manning, who posted (3,429) passing yards and (20) touchdown passes. Majority of the Giants success came from their passing attack; but, even with one of the best seasons that Eli Manning had as a NFL quarterback, he is still a turnover prone quarterback. Manning have (13) interceptions to this point and applying pressure to the eighth year quarterback gives the Falcons a major chance to cause havoc in the backfield. On Sunday, John Abraham and Kroy Biermann must step up and disrupt Eli Manning from having the proper amount of time to get the Giants offense moving and they need to put their defense in position to force turnovers. Applying pressure to Eli Manning will give you a better chance to shut down the Giants passing attack from making a huge impact on Sunday's game. Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan needs to establish different blitz packages that will allow the Falcons front four to get after Eli Manning and force him into costly turnovers. Zone packages will not be a smart option to use against this Giants offense because that will give Eli Manning time to create big plays for the New York offense and that can't happen if the Falcons are going to win on Sunday. On the offensive side of the ball, the Falcons offensive line must contain the Giants defensive line from interrupting their flow of the offense. Falcons offensive line must make it difficult for opponents to sack Matt Ryan and disrupt the Falcons passing game. A key addition to the lineup was the return of Sam Baker, who was injured and did an outstanding job protecting Ryan's blindside throughout the season. On Sunday, Baker will be matched up against Giants star defensive end Justin Tuck. Tuck had a down season on the Giants defense as he only recorded three sacks this season and will be looking for a game to build off as the playoffs are getting closer. The second biggest match-up will be Tyson Clabo vs Jason-Pierre Paul. Pierre-Paul is not having the type of season he was used to posting as he recorded (6.5) sacks to this point, which is half the amount he recorded last season; however, when he's given the opportunity to cause havoc in the backfield, he will be a force to be reckoned with on the field and that's what the Falcons must limit. If Atlanta's offensive line can keep their defensive unit intact, they have a great shot of winning the game.

6. DOME FIELD ADVANTAGE:

The Falcons home crowd must be loud and cause Eli Manning and the Giants to have a rough time hearing signals and force some false start penalties. In two of the Falcons biggest home wins (New Orleans and Denver), we saw the home crowd in their seats early and making noise when thee opponents were on the field. Atlanta's "12th Man" have done a tremendous job all season and I expect to see the fans ready and fired up for another playoff like atmosphere in the Georgia Dome on Sunday afternoon.Although many people many not view the Falcons home crowd as a factor to a home win, this is  going to be critical on Sunday. The Falcons fans must make the atmosphere hostile and that can give the Falcons defense an extra boost. Fans need to be in their seats before kickoff and not making their way into the Dome late in the first quarter or halftime, the team needs to feel the support from their hometown fans from the start in order to motivate them to play Falcons football against one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL today. Nationally, Atlanta fans are not given much credit for their support of the Falcons and Sunday would be a prime example to send a message to the league that this fan base have faith that we can win a big game against a legitimate contender. 


KEY MATCH-UPS IN THE FALCONS vs GIANTS GAME:

1. Roddy White vs Corey Webster:

The Falcons will have a favorable match-up between these two players as Roddy White is having yet another tremendous season and is a tough match to handle for an opposing secondary and he should have a big game on Sunday. Corey Webster, who was great in 2011 have not looked as impressive this season as he's struggling to recognize certain coverage and have been burned by some of his receiving match-ups as well this season. Matt Ryan needs to take advantage of this match-up and expose Webster while covering Roddy White or whomever he'll cover in Sunday's game. Despite the struggles against some of the best receivers in the game today, Webster can still make a huge impact on a football game for the Giants defense. For the Falcons, Roddy White can't drop any clutch passes in this game or that could be deadly to the passing attack. 

2. Julio Jones vs Prince Amukamara:

This will be an intriguing match-up on Sunday as the Falcons most explosive receiver faces off with arguably the best cornerback on the Giants this season. Amukamara, in his second year in the NFL have been impressive and made big plays in the Giants defense as well; he's a good coverage corner and rarely is beat on a defensive play; however, he's facing an explosive threat in Julio Jones. The Giants secondary have struggled at times to defend receivers with the play-making ability similar to Julio Jones as they face Dez Bryant twice a year.Matt Ryan will use this match-up often throughout the game and he must also be cautious with his throws because Amukamara could step up and earn a interception. For the Falcons, Julio Jones must remain focused against a stingy New York secondary and Matt Ryan needs to create the opportunities for Julio to use his play-making ability on Sunday afternoon.

3.Hakeem Nicks vs Dunta Robinson:

With all of the hype around Victor Cruz and his impact for the Giants passing game, Hakeem Nicks quietly put together a great season for New York. Nicks, in his fourth  season, is coming off an injury  and coming off a huge game against New Orleans, in which he scored a fewtouchdowns and his match-up will likely be against Dunta Robinson. Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan needs to allow Robinson to play man to man coverage on Nicks and prevent him from having any impact in the game for the Giants passing attack. Robinson must take away all of those big plays on Sunday in order to contain their star wide receiver. This match-up could be key in stopping the explosive Giants offense from having a great game. The Falcons secondary is up for a huge test; however, this would be the best match-up for Robinson of the receiving core of Nicks, Cruz, and Barden. In last year's playoff game, Nicks was the difference maker in the Giants victory over the Falcons and if he's not contained, he could cause problems on Sunday afternoon.


FINAL PREDICTION:
The Falcons-Giants game will be a competiitve and high scoring contest between two familiar playoff foes. For the first three quarters, I expect both teams to trade points and the playoff like football game will eventually end up with the Falcons pulling away with either a go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter to lift Atlanta to 12-2. I'll return with a post-game blog and analysis after the New York/Atlanta contest. Until next time, FALCONS RISE UP!!!!

SCORE: ATLANTA FALCONS 27 NEW YORK GIANTS 17