Atlanta Falcons (8-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-5) Preview

Matt Ryan #2  passes against the Dallas Cowboys at the Georgia Dome (November 3, 2012 - Source: Scott Cunningham/Getty Images North America)

Coming off yet another huge win against the Dallas Cowboys, the Atlanta Falcons will begin their NFC South portion of the schedule as they travel on the road to New Orleans and face the Saints. Atlanta will look to end their bad streak in the SuperDome as the Saints have won five of the last six games against the Falcons at home, the lone victory came in 2010 as the Falcons won 27-24 in overtime. The Saints, who are riding high off a Monday Night victory against the Philadelphia Eagles, will look to earn another home win and come closer to .500 as the second half begins. The Falcons are coming into the contest facing one of the worst defensive teams in the league as the Saints ranked (29th) in the NFL in opposing passing yards allowed with (294.8) and last in rushing yards allowed with (176.5) per game; however, the Saints offense is one of the best in the NFL as they are ranked fifth overall but their passing attack is a huge reason why. Led by Drew Brees, the Saints have the second best passing offense in the NFL posting (305.4) yards per contest; however, their ground attack is the third worst in the NFL averaging (81.0) per contest. On the other side, the Saints are playing a Falcons offense who ranks (8th) in the NFL in yards per game with (376.6) per contest, but Atlanta is (8th) in passing with (278.1) yards per game and (25th) in rushing with (98.5) yards per game; however, the Falcons are the seventh highest scoring team in the league averaging around (27.5) points per contest. Although the statistics show a certain strength and weakness of both teams, this NFC South showdown will be a close and competitive contest on Sunday afternoon. Now, I will give some keys to victory, key match-ups, and final prediction for the Falcons vs Saints contest. 

KEYS TO VICTORY AGAINST THE SAINTS:

1. The Falcons need to establish their ground game early:

Associated Press/Chuck Burton -  Michael Turner (33) runs away from Dallas
 Cowboys linebacker Ernie Sims (59) 

My first point to securing a win against the Saints is opening Sunday's contest with a efficient rushing attack. Although Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing attack is explosive and a big-play offense, getting Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers going early will open up many opportunities against an average Saints defensive unit. Against the Cowboys, Michael Turner ran for (102) yards and a touchdown and also got a lift from back-up Jacquizz Rodgers as well. The Falcons have transitioned from their power running game, which was successful for the first four seasons; however, that's the benefit of having that element to your offense. Don't be surprised if Koetter gets Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers a nice amount of carries early in order to keep the Saints defense honest. Although the Falcons have entered the game with one of the worst rushing attacks this season, make no mistake about it, when Atlanta can establish their ground game, the offense is even tougher to contain. Atlanta enters Sunday's contest facing one of the worst rushing defenses as they allowed over (176.5) per game, and that could be a huge boost to Atlanta's offense. Another important factor in establishing the rushing attack is the fact that the Falcons are a ball-control football team as their offense ranked tenth in the NFL as they have possession of the football (31:38) per contest. The Falcons offense need to conduct lengthy but efficient drives in order to keep Drew Brees and the Saints passing attack off the field and keep the crowd from causing any havoc when they are on the field. Once your rushing attack gets going, many opportunities will open up for Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game, which could cause a long day for the New Orleans Saints. 

2. The Falcons defense must disguise their scheme to confuse Drew Brees:

Jonathan Babineaux gets pressure on Tony Romo
(AtlantaFalcons.com)

The Falcons defensive unit have a interesting challenge as their passing defense will face one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Drew Brees. Although the Saints record is not favorable, for the most part, their offense is still consistent in the air. Drew Brees is posting an average of (305) yards per contest and their offense is scoring an average of (27.2) points per game as well so the Falcons defense must be ready to defend Brees. One significant point the Atlanta Falcons have presented on defense since acquiring coordinator Mike Nolan in the off-season is their ability to make adjustments at the line and disguise their scheme to perfection in order to confuse their opposing quarterbacks. Their ability to disguise their defensive game strategy caused them to force some of the top tier quarterbacks in the NFL such as Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers into costly mistakes. On Sunday, the Falcons must control the tempo on offense and create havoc on defense including throwing different looks at Drew Brees. This could be a critical point in whether the Falcons win or lose on Sunday because if you're going to show Brees your defensive strategy, he can pick your defense apart, which was a huge reason why the Falcons struggled against him in former coordinator Brian Van Gorder's scheme; however, Nolan's scheme is very unpredictable. Another key component for the Falcons defense is creating big plays on defense and through eight games, the team have excelled at that ranking fourth in the NFL in interceptions with (10) and (13th) overall in quarterback sacks with (20) so Atlanta's opportunistic defense could make a huge stand or play that could lead the team to another victory. Atlanta's scheme could also force the Saints offensive unit to commit costly penalties as well, who have made (52) penalties through eight games. The Falcons will also need to prevent long drives from New Orleans as well, you want to limit their production on offense as much as possible. The Falcons are average to this point when it comes to getting off the field defensively in third down situations, ranking (21st) in the NFL with (41%) of their opponent's third downs being converted and that's a major test against the Saints, who converts (44%) of their situations, which is seventh-best in the league. Atlanta's defense have been very consistent so far; however, against Drew Brees on Sunday, you must be ready to make the big stop or give the Falcons a boost when the time comes.

3. Score touchdowns in the red-zone, don't settle for too many field goals:

Michael Turner breaks for a big run in Sunday's win
(AP-Rich Addicks)

Atlanta's offense have been outstanding for the most part this season; however, the Falcons must address their efficiency within the 20-yard line. Against Dallas, the Falcons struggled to convert their opportunities into touchdowns. Outside of Michael Turner's eventual go-ahead touchdown, the Falcons were 2-4 in the red-zone, including two field goals from Matt Bryant as well as two missed field goals from him early in the first half. The Falcons have too much talent not to score more touchdowns within the red-zone, which is a struggle we've encountered from time to time throughout the 2012 campaign. Atlanta must work on mixing their plays when they are approaching the end zone because at times, the Falcons will throw in situations where they should run the football and the same situation when they made decisions to run the ball instead of utilizing their passing weapons such as Julio Jones, Roddy White or Tony Gonzalez. On Sunday, the Falcons could be in a position where scoring seven points will be the difference in the contest, especially if the Saints are scoring touchdowns and making Sunday's game very interesting. In the Falcons past two losses to the Saints, this was a major concern and played a critical point in the football game. It's vitally important that Atlanta scores touchdowns and keep the pressure on the Saints offense throughout the football game. 

KEY MATCH-UPS AGAINST THE SAINTS:

1. Roddy White vs Jabari Greer/ Julio Jones vs Patrick Robinson:

Julio Jones reception vs Dallas on Sunday
(The Falcon Wing)

The receiving match-ups will be a very intriguing test for the New Orleans Saints secondary because although the Saints won 45-16 in the previous match-up, both receivers posted over (100) receiving yards apiece. On Sunday, Roddy White will face a familiar face in Jabari Greer. Greer is arguably the best corner back in the Saints secondary and have played Roddy White very well in their contests against each other in the past; unfortunately for him and Robinson, this is been a very disappointing year for the corners. New Orleans have allowed over 100 yard receiving to a number of receivers this year such as Desean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Vincent Jackson, and Demaryius Thomas and their hands will be full with the combination of Roddy Whiter and Julio Jones, who carved up the Cowboys secondary on Sunday as they both went over the 100 yards receiving mark. Of the two match-ups, the biggest disadvantage will be the Julio Jones vs Patrick Robinson match because Robinson tends to struggle against tall receivers which explosive play-making attributes and Sunday will be yet another challenge for the young corner back. 

2. Pierre Thomas/Chris Ivory vs Falcons Front Seven:

Chris Ivory Touchdown Run against the Eagles
(StamfordAdvocate.com)

The Falcons will have an intriguing match-up as the Saints will utilize their running backs on Sunday. Pierre Thomas gave the Falcons defense a tough time in the previous match-up and you always have to play smart against him because Thomas is a power back who can be used in many ways such as in the screen game, which the Saints are well known for using. With Darren Sproles out, Thomas will get more opportunities and you must bring him down immediately because he's a tough running back. Chris Ivory, who is the Saints fourth running back will see more playing time as well after a great showing against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night and like Thomas, Ivory is a physical back but possesses more speed and can a problem to tackle. The Falcons must contain him from making any impact on offense by making sure they can get the initial tackle because if you're missing tackles against these type of running backs, that could provide problems for your defense during  Sunday's contest. 

Tony Gonzalez reception against Dallas
(StamfordAdvocate.com)

3. Tony Gonzalez vs Curtis Lofton:
This match-up brings up two former teammates as former middle linebacker of the Falcons, Curtis Lofton will try to contain Tony Gonzalez. In last week's defeat against the Eagles, Lofton had a tough time defending Brent Celek and seemed to struggle a lot in coverage; however, this Sunday will be much tougher for him as the Falcons come to town. Although he was with Atlanta for four seasons, it will be interesting to see how Matt Ryan will get Tony Gonzalez involved against a team mate that they pretty much know Lofton's strength and weaknesses and that could cause major issues for New Orleans on Sunday afternoon. Expect Matt Ryan to target Tony Gonzalez and see can Lofton contain the Hall of Fame tight end. Gonzalez could be due for a huge game in the Superdome.


4. Falcons secondary vs Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham:

Sean Weatherspoon breaks up a pass intended for Jimmy Graham
(November 12, 2011 - Source: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images North America)

The Falcons must be careful to find a way to contain Colston from having a huge game on Sunday. Colston have given the Falcons defense fits for years and Atlanta's defense must use their ability to disguise schemes to prevent New Orleans from getting their top receiving threat going. Another intriguing person is Jimmy Graham, who is Drew Brees security blanket and second most used target in New Orleans passing attack. Akeem Dent, Sean Weatherspoon and the rest of the linebacker core will need to play tight coverage on the explosive tight end because if he's allowed to have his way, that could cause a lot of issues for the Falcons secondary on Sunday afternoon. If the Falcons can limit one of the two targets, you're in a favorable position to earn a win against the Saints on Sunday.


PREDICTION:

The Falcons/Saints rivalry will once again provide a high scoring contest and both teams will be fired up to play in a game which Atlanta have an opportunity to go to 9-0 and eliminate New Orleans from the NFC South race; however, the Saints could draw a game closer to .500 with a win so both teams will lay it all on the line. In the end, I expect the Falcons to pull out a clutch fourth quarter victory in the Superdome. Until my next blog, LET'S GO FALCONS!!!!

FINAL PREDICTION: 
ATLANTA FALCONS 27 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 20