2012 Atlanta Falcons Season Preview: Michael Turner

Michael Turner, entering his fifth season as a member of the Atlanta Falcons, he's definitely far from the days in San Diego where he was  backing Ladainian Tomlinson to becoming one of the best backs in the NFL today. Since Turner was acquired by Atlanta in the 2008 season, he's been one of the most valuable players to the Falcons organization and is a key contributor to the success under the Mike Smith-Thomas Dimitroff era. Last season, Michael Turner led the NFC in rushing with (1,340) yards, (11) rushing touchdowns, and averaged (83.8) yards rushing per game. In his four years in Atlanta, Turner broke numerous Falcons records such as: Most Touchdowns In A Season (17 in 2008), Most Consecutive Games with a Touchdown (7 in 2009), Most Touchdowns In A Game (4 in 2008), and Most Yards In A Single Game (220 in 2008). Turner's (5,281) rushing yards is ranked (5th) among running backs in Atlanta Falcons history and broke Gerald Riggs franchise record in touchdowns with (50) in his successful career. Turner is on pace to breaking almost every Falcons rushing record and he's been one of the premier running backs in the NFL and in team history. Heading into the 2012 season, many reports have emerged that Turner's carries per game are going to be reduced due to the amount of carries he received under former offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey. Although Michael Turner is not the explosive athlete that he was when he was acquired four seasons ago, he's still a defensive nightmare to many opponents and is still one of the top running backs in the league today. This season, many reports have emerged that Michael Turner will probably average around twenty carries per game due to posting over (300) carries in three of his four seasons in Atlanta. In this blog, I will give my expectations for Turner as we slowly approach the start of the 2012 NFL season.

EXPECTATIONS FOR MICHAEL TURNER AND THE RUNNING GAME IN 2012:

1. Turner's Reduction of Carries Will Keep Him Fresh and Productive:

Michael Turner, without a doubt, has provided a spark in the running game whenever we needed him to over the last four seasons; however, carrying the ball as much as the 30-year old running back have throughout his time as a Falcon starts taking a toll on his production in the future. As I mentioned above, in three of his four seasons in Atlanta, Turner have received over (300) carries on offense throughout the team's campaign. Under Dirk Koetter, Turner's carries are going to be reduced, which is a benefit because this allows him to remain fresh and still give the production necessary to help Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense remain balanced. Last season, when Turner carried the ball around 15 or 20 times in a game, Atlanta was 3-1 and when he carried the ball 21-30 times in a game, the Falcons were 7-1. Michael Turner should at least have around (20) or (25) carries per game in order for the Falcons to keep their balanced offensive attack. Yes, everyone is excited to see what Julio Jones, Roddy White, and the Atlanta passing game will bring in 2012; however, the Falcons are still a run first offense and with the reduction of carries for the star player, his production can remain the same or could even improve. Another significant point to watch is during Koetter's stint as the Jaguars offensive coordinator, Maurice Jones Drew was averaging around 17-22 carries per game and still provided the same production as Michael Turner and even more in the past few seasons.  Michael Turner should average more yards per carry because with the offensive weapons of Julio Jones and Roddy White at receiver, the Falcons will be a very unpredictable offense and this season, Turner will be allowed to have some breaks during the game and will have enough stamina in order to make big runs from scrimmage for the Falcons offense. One of the main issues that wondered many Falcons fans and other NFL experts is the amount of carries that Turner receives during the entire season; however, with a balanced attack and a change of pace runner, Turner should catch some time to produce at a higher rate than the previous  seasons for the Falcons.He's still one of the most valuable assets to the Atlanta Falcons; however, he must receive a fair amount of carries each game so he can continue to produce big numbers like he did since 2008. Even with the struggles from rushing attack, Turner still ranked as the NFC's best rusher and his production is very important in each game. His explosive traits may have taken a step down since the beginning of his time in a Falcons uniform; however, he provides a power style that many teams struggle to contain on game day. Although Turner is your starter, he needs to receive some valuable contribution from other running backs on the team as well, which is my next point.

2. Michael Turner needs either Jason Snelling or Jacquizz Rodgers to add another threat to the rushing attack:

One of the biggest issues the Falcons encountered last season was the lack of production from another running back on the roster. A portion of the issue had to do with Mularkey's scheme which either had Turner on the field for most of the game or he couldn't place each running back in the position to provide a spark for Atlanta's offense, which allows Michael Turner to remain fresh and still give the momentous runs we'll need in big game situations. Jacquizz Rodgers, Atlanta's second year running back is supposed to provide the rushing attack with that spark because of his elusive running style and ability to be a true "change of pace" running back for the offense. Many people would like to see Rodgers give Atlanta's offense another spark similar to what former running back Jerious Norwood provided in Turner's first two seasons. In 2008, Jerious Norwood and Michael Turner was one of the most explosive two back tandems in the NFL because Turner was the power back who could also break for some huge runs; however, Norwood was your speed back who could provide a "home-run" threat for the offense in which an explosive run could result in a huge play or even a touchdown. Unfortunately, with Norwood being hurt the next three seasons, the Falcons were unable to have a change of pace player in the rushing attack. Jason Snelling, who is another reliable option at running back, is a good player; however, like Turner, Snelling is a physical runner who also excels in catching passes out of the backfield but under Mularkey's system, his production was limited as well and that placed a lot of responsibility on Michael Turner. Under Koetter's new system, the Falcons should call formations and "add a few wrinkles" to the rushing plays in the playbook. Michael Turner is your power back who can provide big runs when he's running up the middle and Koetter should add some more delays and other schemes which allows Turner to break for huge plays on the ground and provide the assistance to the offense for Matt Ryan. Jacquizz Rodgers need to be an option for pitches and he will also be used for the Falcons screen game. In Jacksonville, Maurice Jones Drew was used often in screen passes and with the elusive ability that Rodgers have, he could be your first option to give defenses a hard time predicting whether the Falcons would run or pass when he's on the field and that's another huge support system behind Turner. Koetter can allow Jason Snelling to play both styles in the running game because he can run the ball with power similar to what Michael Turner provides to the team and he's a great pass receiver and possess the ability to break for big plays in both aspects of Atlanta's offense. The Falcons will aim to be more of a "running back by committee" offense similar to New Orleans and Carolina. With the Panthers, you can see how DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart split carries and how their offense use them both to call plays that will fit each player's style. In New Orleans, Pierre Thomas is the player who can either run the ball up the middle or use him in the screen game, which he excels at executing on offense. Darren Sproles also provides the speed factor to their rushing attack in which he can be a receiving back who have the ability to make big plays at a high rate. The Saints also use Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram as their power backs as well and those teams are certain examples of how the Falcons will use their running back by committee for the upcoming season. 

3. Pat Hill's Blocking Scheme Will Benefit Michael Turner:

In the off-season, the Falcons did a lot of work to their offensive line and the first step was bringing in former Frezno State head coach Pat Hill. Hill, who was a offensive line/tight ends coach in the NFL. Hill joined the Cleveland Browns in 1992 and spent four seasons (1992-95) in the organization, coaching tight ends and offensive line in addition to working in the personnel department evaluating players. Also, the Falcons made some moves in the NFL Draft to improve their offensive line. Second round pick Peter Konz, who was a center from Wisconsin was the top center ranked in the draft and came from a run-heavy Badgers offense which successfully blocked for Monte Ball, which is one of the best running backs in the country. Atlanta acquired their full back Bradie Ewing, who was Konz teammate and was another key component in their successful rushing attack and they could be key additions to the offensive line because not only were they successful blocking linemen; they were athletic because they were successful at pull blocking. The Falcons needed to address this issue after losing Harvey Dahl to free agency last season and Ovie Mughelli suffered a season-ending injury, which made the Falcons rushing attack struggle down the stretch in 2011. This season, Pat Hill mentioned during the Falcons mini camps that he was trying to teach the lineman fundamentals and bring a zone blocking scheme for the running game. In a zone blocking scheme, fleet-footedness and athletic ability trump size as desirable qualities in offensive linemen. Coordination and technique matter more than muscle in implementing a successful scheme because defensive linemen are often double-teamed at the point of attack. For many fans that don't remember, the Falcons used to be a zone-blocking under former offensive coordinator Greg Knapp and in Michael Vick's last three seasons in Atlanta. Atlanta was successful using the zone blocking scheme as former running backs T.J. Duckett and Warrick Dunn led the NFL in rushing from 2004-2006 and with the offensive talent that the running back core possess, this team could really benefit off the new scheme. Under this scheme, Michael Turner will have linemen blocking for him once he starts to run at the second level of the defense. Once Turner reaches the second level, he will be able to use his elusiveness, power, and vision in the open field. If the offense can get it going through the zone blocking scheme, it can help their entire offense as well because having an effective running game will help the passing offense really take flight in Atlanta. 



CONCLUSION:

Michael Turner is still one of the most valuable players to the Atlanta Falcons offense. In the NFL, we know that most teams are now transitioning to a pass happy offense including ours as well but we have the advantage of having a power running back who can keep the offense balanced and productive. Over the last four years, when Turner runs for 100 yards, the Falcons have a 22-5 record and by this stat, when the Falcons rushing attack is on, this team usually wins the game. Heading into 2012, a lot of talk has been centered around Julio Jones, Harry Douglas, and the Falcons passing attack; however, the bread and butter of success in Atlanta is running the ball. Eventually, the Falcons will progress into a passing attack; however, Michael Turner is the key to the Falcons success in 2012. Until next time, RISE UP!!!!!

2012 Atlanta Falcons Season Player Preview: Matt Ryan

Heading into his fifth season in the NFL , there is no doubt that Matt Ryan is on pace to becoming the most successful quarterback in Atlanta Falcons history. At the age of 27 years old, Matt Ryan has already broken numerous team records and continued to establish an impressive resume unlike any other quarterback in Atlanta Falcons History. In his short career, Ryan led the Falcons to four consecutive winning seasons, a 42-19 record overall in his career as a starter, three playoff appearances, and a NFC South Division Title in 2010. He's also coming off a great 2011 campaign in which he posted (4,177) passing yards, a career high, which was ranked (8th) best in the NFL and set the record for the most yards passing in a season in Atlanta Falcons history. Ryan's (347) completions was the second highest of his career and set another career high with (29) touchdown passes. Ryan  posted a (61.3) completion percentage, which was the second highest of his career and finished with a QB rating of (92.2), which was another career high for Ryan last season. Every year, Matt Ryan continues to  make progression throughout the regular season; however, there is one flaw that's setting him from the elite quarterbacks in the league: playoff wins and a Super Bowl victory. Without question, Ryan can deliver 10-12 wins or even more in the regular season; however, he struggled in the NFL playoffs posting an 0-3 record and lost to the last two Super Bowl winners (New York Giants, Green Bay Packers) . Many Falcons fans would love to see Matt Ryan take the next step towards delivering the first Super Bowl championship in team history and with the talent that the 2012 team have, they are capable of making the goal possible. Matt Ryan is the key to the Atlanta Falcons success this season. Many national experts view him as a great quarterback that can't escape the January struggles; however, under a new offensive coordinator and a completely different scheme, Matt Ryan looks to post yet another career season for the Falcons. Matt Ryan is emerging as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL and this season, the fans of Atlanta are expecting great things from this team and I will list some of the important steps that Matt Ryan needs to take in order to have a great season and potentially return a Lombardi trophy to Atlanta.




EXPECTATIONS FOR THE 2012 SEASON:


1. Expect Matt Ryan's Yards Per Completion to Increase:


Under Dirk Koetter's new offensive game plan, you will see Matt Ryan make better decisions when the Falcons are throwing the ball throughout the season. In the past four years under Mike Mularkey, after his rookie campaign, some of the plays called under the previous offensive system made the Falcons passing attack take a step back due to lack of consistency. In 2008, Matt Ryan passes that were completed averaged (7.93) yards per completion, which is a great amount especially if you're in a ten yard situation because  making successful passes with this amount of yards can allow your running game to assist you and keep a balanced attack throughout the game, which is a defensive nightmare. In 2009 and 2010, Matt Ryan averaged (6.47 in 2009) and (6.49 in 2010) per pass completion, which is a good number; however, Mularkey's system did not allow Matt Ryan to take control of certain passing situations throughout the game and that could have been due to the fact that many defenses often played tight coverage or double teamed Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White. Last year, after the acquisition of Julio Jones, Matt Ryan took a step forward as he averaged (7.38) yards per completion consistency in their offense and as great as Ryan's number was, the offensive scheme prevented the team from taking steps forward. In 2012, Matt Ryan will be able to expand his passing offense under his control for the first time in his career. During training camp, I saw Matt Ryan making great decisions in certain passing situations where he was able to make accurate passes and get the offense involved and utilize all of his weapons as well. Koetter's system was very successful in Jacksonville with former Jaguars star David Garrard and in Atlanta, Ryan will excel in a new system that can adjust to his passing style. 




2. Matt Ryan's Completion Percentage Will Improve and Atlanta's Offensive will take a step ahead:

Last season, Matt Ryan had a decent completion percentage of (61.3) throughout the season; however, this was a stat that could have been a lot higher and unfortunately, the Falcons offense lacked their true identity under Mularkey's scheme. This season, Ryan will make smarter choices during game-day situations such as calling better routes for his receiving core. In 2011, with the addition of Julio Jones, the Falcons were trying too hard to be an explosive team that Ryan were taking unnecessary deep shots down the field to give Atlanta quick offensive scoring possessions and many times, the strategy was unsuccessful. Yes, it's great to have a wide receiver with the ability such as Jones; however, this team never took many shots down the field under Mike Mularkey. After last season, Matt Ryan averaged a (43.1) quarterback rating when throwing passes over (25+) yards and that's a number that must improve and under Dirk Koetter system, I feel that Ryan will make better passing decisions. This season, expect Matt Ryan to throw more passes around ten or twenty yards and the completion ratio will continue to increase as well. As you look at the talented wide receiver tandem in Roddy White and Julio Jones, Matt Ryan will need to throw passes that can allow those talented players to use their skills to make productive plays when the Falcons are on offense. Another key component to the Falcons passing game taking strides ahead will be the screen game. Last season, the Falcons didn't utilize this into their offense and that set back the progression of backup feature backs Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers because Mularkey's offense didn't allow Atlanta to show their offensive talent to opposing defenses. Under Koetter's new scheme, the screen game will be a huge bonus for the Falcons because this makes the offensive mindset difficult to predict and with the speed coming out of the backfield, this will force opposing defenses to respect the balanced attack and unlike last season, Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense will not be considered "vanilla"- which is when your offense becomes very predictable and encounter limited success throughout games. Another huge reason for his completion percentage to improve will be the emergence of Harry Douglas and Kerry Meier. Under Mularkey's scheme, Douglas or "HD" as many Falcons fans refer him as was unable to show the explosive aspect he brought to Atlanta's receiving core; however, when Douglas was called upon, the Falcons passing attack went to another level. In 2012, with the Falcons allowing the slot receiver to provide more of an impact to the game plan, this will prevent double or tight coverage on receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones. In past seasons, many defenses felt that if they were able to successfully take those receivers out of the game, Matt Ryan would struggle to have success in the air, which usually happened under former coordinator Mike Mularkey. This season, Dirk Koetter will allow Matt Ryan to utilize Harry Douglas to his full potential and many could view Douglas as a Wes Welker or Lance Moore type receiver that can cause problems for opposing coordinators. In the Falcons new scheme, Matt Ryan will finally be able to utilize all of his offensive weapons and that could lead to another career season for the fifth year quarterback.


3. Expect Matt Ryan to throw for at least 30 Touchdown Passes:

Each season, Matt Ryan's numbers have increased in his tenure as the Atlanta Falcons franchise quarterback. Last season, Ryan posted (4,177) passing yards, which was his career high and was ranked (8th) best in the NFL and set the record most yards passing in a season in Atlanta Falcons history. His (347) completions was the second highest of his career and (29) touchdown passes was another career high  for the young quarterback. Ryan also posted a (61.3) completion percentage, which was the second highest of his career and finished with a QB rating of (92.2), which was another career mark that Matt Ryan posted last year. This season, with a new coordinator, Ryan will have his best season as a Falcons quarterback. Usually, as a fifth year quarterback, most elite NFL players enter their prime and under a new offensive scheme, you should expect Matt Ryan to really take flight especially with the offensive talent that the Falcons will have to open the 2012 campaign. Under Koetter's scheme, if the Falcons running game can still remain effective like they were under Mularkey's offense, this will help Matt Ryan's passing attack as well. With a consistent running game, Matt Ryan is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL when he's running a play action pass because usually, opposing defenses are so cautious of what impact Michael Turner can make on the ground that it allows Ryan and the Falcons passing game to take control of the game. Also, you can expect the Falcons to take some chances in the air once they enter the red-zone. Over the past four seasons, when Atlanta was within 10-20 yards of the end zone, their offense fed through Michael Turner and the ground attack to score points; however, expect Matt Ryan to rely on his offensive weapons in short yardage situations. In my opinion, Tony Gonzalez is the most reliable option for Matt Ryan to score touchdown passes and you will also see production from Julio Jones and Roddy White in those situations because the Falcons will have many options that have the ability to score touchdowns. As I mentioned above, we could also see the Falcons run their screen game down in the red-zone and that could lead to more passing touchdowns and that makes Atlanta's offense hard to predict in red-zone situations. This season, we're going to see the Falcons aim towards scoring more touchdowns and settling less for field goals and with the new system, I feel that Matt Ryan can successfully take the next step necessary. When many national experts look at the Falcons in the red-zone, they probably expect us to pound the ball with Michael Turner on the ground; however, you will see Ryan make great decisions which will lead to touchdowns in the red-zone. Every season, he continues to improve his numbers and I truly feel that 2012 will be the breakout season for the fifth year quarterback. 



4. Matt Ryan will improve his confidence and his effort in big games:

Many national experts talk about Matt Ryan as the great regular season quarterback who can't pull it together to win a post-season game; however, the Falcons as a team must take this step and it all starts from the production of Ryan. Without a question, he is one of the best regular season quarterbacks in the NFL and the best in Atlanta Falcons history; however, many feel that Ryan lacks a "killer instinct" when it comes to big game situations. The first step is confidence in Dirk Koetter and the offensive strategy established to deliver a playoff win. Under Mike Mularkey, either his game plan was inconsistent or the offense failed to establish a true identity and that was a huge issue in the 2011 campaign, which led to the Falcons starting 2-3 and only defeating one playoff team last season, the Detroit Lions. Atlanta were beating the teams who many expected them to beat; however, they struggled to bring the same effort against teams such as the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints. Under Dirk Koetter, expect the Falcons to have a better strategy that's necessary to compete with and beat those elite teams in the NFL. Matt Ryan must have a lot of confidence in his offense and the coordinator because Mularkey held certain things back and that ultimately cost us many games over the past four seasons due to lack of an identity. This season, Koetter will allow Matt Ryan to have more control of the offense and trust him to make better decisions and that's a huge confidence boost for Ryan. Recently, Dirk Koetter referred to Matt Ryan as a Top 10 quarter back in the NFL, which can only make your star player feel better and believe in conducting your game plan to the best of his ability. Another component that Matt Ryan needs to improve is consistent play on the road in big games. Over the past four seasons, the Falcons only have one winning season on the road (6-2 in 2010) and the other seasons, the team either went .500 or less in road contests. Some of the best quarterbacks win big games whether at home or on the road and Matt Ryan will encounter some interesting tests with his schedule this year. This season, Atlanta will play a road- home schedule the entire season and that could be the advantage to help him develop the killer instinct to win through any predicament and the level of quarterbacks we're encountering this season such as Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Eli and Peyton Manning, and Michael Vick to name some of the few, Matt Ryan will be placed on a big stage and this is his opportunity to show the league that he's indeed one of the best quarterbacks around the league. 




CONCLUSION:

In conclusion, Matt Ryan is going to have a successful 2012 campaign for the Atlanta Falcons and these are some of the many expectations that Atlanta fans and the entire league will witness as the season begins. He’s a talented quarterback that works hard, has all the intangibles and has a great supporting cast at the skill positions that is necessary to deliver a Super Bowl championship this year. As for Matt Ryan, it will take one step at a time this season; however, I feel that Ryan as well as the rest of the organization believes that the franchise can go to newer heights this year. With a new offensive coordinator such as Dirk Koetter, who was instrumental in the success that Jacksonville had in the late 2000's under David Garrard, Koetter has a reputation for being more creative and flexible than Mularkey and that’s exactly what Ryan needs. He’s on the verge of being an elite quarterback. He just needs to take steps ahead starting this season and help the Atlanta Falcons take flight and win a Super Bowl. Until next time, FALCONS RISE UP!!!