Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants Preview

Roddy White's reception
(AtlantaFalcons.com)

On Sunday, the Falcons will return to the post-season for the tenth time in franchise history and the second straight season. Atlanta starts the 2012 NFL playoffs as a wild-card team for the second time in the last four years. Last season, this club won 13 games and captured the top seed in the NFC for only the second time in franchise history ; unfortunately, they lost to the eventual Super Bowl champions Green Bay Packers.  After defeating Tampa Bay in the home finale and winning the tiebreaker over the Detroit Lions, Atlanta ended their season with a (10-6) record and the fifth seed in the NFC playoffs. The Falcons won at least 10 games for the third time in four years under Mike Smith and will look to earn their first playoff victory since 2004. For the Falcons, the 2011 campaign was a roller coaster season after the Falcons opened up with a shocking 2-3 record after losing to the Bears, Buccaneers, and the Packers. After the Packers loss, the Falcons embarked on a three game winning streak after beating the Panthers, Lions, and Colts to improve their record to 5-3. After a home loss to the Saints, the Falcons bounced back and won against the Titans and Vikings to end November with a 7-4 record. In December, after suffering a tough loss to the Houston Texans, Atlanta earned back to back wins against the Panthers and Jaguars. Before their loss to the Saints in week 16, the Falcons earned a playoff berth when the Packers defeated the Bears. After a loss, the Falcons ended their season on a high note and now enters the post-season a year older and wiser as they go to New York to face the Giants. This will be the first time the Falcons and Giants will play in the post season, their last meeting ended with a Giants 34-31 overtime win on November 22,2009. On the other side, the New York Giants enters the post-season for the first time since 2008 after defeating the Dallas Cowboys 31-14 to win their division after a wild season. The Giants opened their season with a 6-2 record and looked as if they would run away with the NFC East; however, they lost four consecutive games and was on the verge of suffering a fifth loss in a row in Dallas until Eli Manning lead his team from a 12-point fourth quarter deficit to beat the Dallas Cowboys and become the leaders of the NFC East. Unfortunately, the following week, New York was upset by the Washington Redskins and were forced to win their final two games in order to win the division. The Giants finished strong by ending the playoff chances of the New York Jets and sweeping the Dallas Cowboys to win the division. In this preview blog, I will state the keys to a Falcons victory, key match-ups, and my final prediction.


Keys to Victory over the New York Giants:


1.The Falcons offense needs to establish the rushing attack with Michael Turner:

Michael Turner run
(AtlantaFalcons.com)

In the previous two playoff games against the Cardinals and Packers, the Falcons did not have a balanced offensive attack, the offense decided to put all of the pressure on Matt Ryan and the passing game to produce points for the team and there were only a few rushes by Michael Turner in both playoff losses. In last year's loss to the Packers, Turner rushed (10) times for (39) yards and a touchdown. Most of his rushes came on the first offensive drive, in which Turner scored a six-yard touchdown. After that, the Falcons decided to throw the ball the remainder of the playoff game. The Falcons are one of the best balanced teams in the NFC and you must use all aspects of your offense in order to win playoff games. Super Bowl champions are able to run the ball effectively when they are called upon in big playoff games. Michael Turner, who is coming off his second consecutive 1,000 yard season, needs to get the Falcons offense going early in order to open up play-action passes and to limit the Giants defensive front from effectively blitzing Matt Ryan. Atlanta is facing a New York defense that struggled to defend the running game. The Giants ended the season ranked (19th) in the NFL allowing (121.5) rushing yards to their opponents. Last week against the Buccaneers, Turner looked healthy and ready for a long post-season run as he rushed for (172) yards and (2) touchdowns in the 45-24 victory. Over the past four seasons, the Falcons were built to be a run-first football team and they need to continue their dominance on the ground  in the NFL playoffs because the team will play outside in the wintry weather in the Northeast and being able to run the ball will put you in position to win playoff games. 


2. The Falcons pass rush needs to earn sacks and apply pressure to Eli Manning:

Kroy Biermann sacks Freeman
(AtlantaFalcons.com)

During the regular season, the Falcons defense had a tough time remaining consistent when it came to their pass rush. Atlanta ended the season with (33) sacks, which was an increase from last season; however, the defensive line needs to interrupt Eli Manning from having an effective day in the passing game for the Giants offense. The Falcons are facing one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season in Manning, who posted (4,933) passing yards and (29) touchdown passes. Majority of the Giants success came from their passing attack; but, even with one of the best seasons that Eli Manning had as a NFL quarterback, he is still a turnover prone quarterback. Manning ended the season with (16) interceptions, which came in the first ten weeks of the NFL season because over the past six games, the seventh-year quarterback did not throw an interception. On Sunday, John Abraham and Ray Edwards must step up and disrupt Eli Manning from having the proper amount of time to get the Giants offense moving and they need to put their defense in position to force turnovers. Applying pressure to Eli Manning will give you a better chance to shut down the Giants passing attack from making a huge impact on Sunday's playoff game. Defensive coordinator Brian Van Gorder needs to establish different blitz packages that will allow the Falcons front four to get after Eli Manning and force him into costly turnovers. Zone packages will not be a smart option to use against this Giants offense because that will give Eli Manning time to create big plays for the New York offense and that can't happen if the Falcons are going to win on Sunday. 




3. The Falcons offense needs to expand their playbook in the post-season and stop allowing opposing defenses to predict your strategy:

Julio Jones TD play
(AtlantaFalcons.com)

This is a key factor towards winning on Sunday afternoon in New York. The Falcons are a great rushing team; however, you must balance your offensive plays throughout the game. In the passing attack, there should be some 4 or 5 wide receiver sets that will allow Harry Douglas and Kerry Meier to make plays in the passing attack. Entering this game, the Giants defensive coordinator and their players are working on making adjustments to limit Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, and Julio Jones from being a huge threat for Atlanta's offense and this calls for Mike Mularkey to include some of his other weapons in the passing game and throwing some different formations at the Giants defense will prevent them from double-teaming or focusing on a certain target in the Falcons offense and that will force them to keep an close eye on all the receivers and this allows Matt Ryan to test the New York secondary. The Giants defense ended the season ranked (29th) in the NFL in overall passing defense; however, they were able to apply pressure towards opposing quarterbacks and ranked (6th) in the NFL in interceptions with (20) and (3rd) in sacks with (48). Matt Ryan also needs to audible once he discovers how the Giants defense will play and prevent them from having any impact on the game. Mike Mularkey must continue to let Julio Jones  play different spots such lining up as a slot receiver. Some of Julio's touchdowns came when Matt Ryan threw  catch five to ten yard passes and gave Jones the freedom to turn the reception into a huge play for the Falcons due to his speed and big play abilities. When the Falcons give the rookie receiver those opportunities, that's when Julio is at his best in the passing game. Establishing the rushing attack is very important on Sunday because this will give Atlanta the opportunity to control the tempo of the game and keep the Giants home crowd out of the game. In the rushing attack, the Falcons need to use Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling in order to keep Michael Turner fresh throughout the game. Mike Mularkey should have certain plays in the Falcons playbook that compliments both of the running backs and gives them the opportunity to help Turner keep the Atlanta running game intact in all four quarters of Sunday's match-up. With Jacquizz Rodgers, the Falcons need to run plays such as pitches and screens that can allow Quizz to use his speed and make some big plays for the Falcons; however, as for Jason Snelling, you can run similar plays that are used for Michael Turner because they have a similar style, but Snelling could be the quicker of the two at the moment so Mularkey needs to design plays for those guys to help the team in the playoffs. 


4. Brian Van Gorder needs to make adjustments in the Falcons secondary:

Dominique Franks interception in the 1st quarter
(AtlantaFalcons.com)

As we enter Sunday's game, we're going to have Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes playing on the outside and Dominique Franks playing the nickel position when the Giants place three or more receivers on the field. In order for those guys to have the best impact for Atlanta's defense, BVG needs to allow each corner back to play their best style. Throughout the season, many people have criticized Dunta Robinson and his inability to play the best when the Falcons are in a zone defense; however, that is the wrong way to allow the veteran corner back to create his own impact on each game. In Houston, Robinson was well-known for being a good corner back because the Texans allowed him to play man to man coverage on his opposing receivers and when the Falcons allowed the same thing for him in certain games this season, Robinson did an outstanding job. Whether many fans want to admit it or not, Dunta Robinson is a good corner; however, it's time to let him play man to man coverage because when he is called to play that way, his receivers have a difficult time establishing any impact on their passing attack. Brent Grimes, on the other hand, can play both zone and man to man coverage so the Falcons can allow him to play either way and many opposing quarterbacks respect the corner for his big play ability; however, with Grimes coming off a knee injury, you can expect Eli Manning to attempt to take shots at him and if Dunta Robinson can contain his match-up, that makes things tougher on any opposing quarterback. In the nickel position, Dominique Franks have proven over the past few weeks that he can play both zone and man to man defense and Atlanta must continue to give him the freedom to play the position the best that Franks can. Franks is coming off two interceptions in his past two games and like Grimes, Franks have the ability to recognize plays and can disrupt them by knocking passes down or making interceptions so the Falcons need to continue to allow him to play this way. On Sunday, he will be matched from time to time with Giants star receiver Victor Cruz and this is the perfect opportunity for him to make a play that could be critical to helping the Falcons win this wild-card game. As we all know, Victor Cruz is a huge reason why the New York Giants is playing on Sunday and in order to interrupt the Giants offense, the Falcons need to prevent Cruz from having a huge impact on the game. 


5. The Falcons must play a 60 minute football game:

Matt Ryan during a timeout
(AtlantaFalcons.com)

In the playoffs, the Falcons can't afford to jump out with an aggressive game plan on offense and defense in the first half and then choose to go with a conservative, not to lose mentality in the second half. Many games this season, the Falcons earned a huge first half lead and surrendered double digit leads to the Seahawks, Eagles, Vikings, Titans, and even lost a game after holding a commanding lead to the Green Bay Packers. Halftime adjustments are key on Sunday and the Falcons need to do a better job from the staff to the mindset of the players in keeping the aggression on your opponents and make your own adjustments to prevent the opponent from discovering your game and taking advantage of it by rallying to win the game. The Falcons were a good first half team all season long, however, the 3rd quarter was a huge problem for this team. Atlanta was outscored 116-74 in the 2011 NFL regular season by all of their opponents and this can't happen in post-season games. If the Falcons gain leads in the first half, you must continue to score points and make it difficult for your opponents to have any chance of winning in the fourth quarter. This club is a fourth quarter football team; however, they must stop allowing their opponents from stealing the momentum in the game and making wins difficult for the team. 




KEY MATCH-UPS:


1.Falcons Offensive Line vs Giants Defensive Line:

Matt Ryan and the Falcons offensive line
(ESPN.com)

After having a tough start to the season, the Falcons offensive line ended on a great note and made it difficult for opponents to sack Matt Ryan and disrupt the Falcons passing game. A key addition to the lineup was former backup tackle Will Svitek, who stepped in after starter Sam Baker was injured and did an outstanding job protecting Ryan's blindside. On Sunday, Svitek will be matched up against Giants star defensive end Justin Tuck. Tuck had a down season on the Giants defense as he only recorded five sacks this season and he is facing a tough left tackle who prevented Jared Allen, Will Smith, and Dwight Freeney from coming after Matt Ryan in some of the Falcons biggest victories this season. The second biggest match-up will be Tyson Clabo vs Jason-Pierre Paul. Pierre-Paul had a great season for the Giants defense and was a major reason that their team was so dominant as he lead the team with (16.5) sacks, forced (2) fumbles, and also made a few key blocks on special teams to end the Cowboys chances of winning the NFC East. Clabo, who is one of the best offensive linemen on the team, will have his hands full; however, if he can prevent JPP from getting after Matt Ryan, the Falcons will be in a great position to win their first playoff game in the Mike Smith era.


2. Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw vs Falcons front seven:

Ahmad Bradshaw against the Falcons in 2009
(nj.com)

The Giants have a running back combo of Jacobs and Bradshaw that can be effective at any time for their offense. This season, the Giants were ranked last in the NFL in rushing with (89.2) yards per game; however, over the past few games, New York have ran for more than 100 yards as a team. They're facing the Falcons defense which ended the season ranked (6th) in the league allowing only (97.0) rushing yards; however, Atlanta struggled over the past four games by allowing some big runs and a few 100 yard rushers for the first time this season. On Sunday, the defense must prevent these two weapons from having a good game and providing a boost to their offensive strategy against the Atlanta defense. Curtis Lofton and Sean Weatherspoon will be two key defensive players to watch for because they are very good at containing the run and will take center stage on Sunday. 


3. Roddy White vs Corey Webster:

Roddy White TD reception
(ESPN.com)

This match-up will be very intriguing to the Falcons passing offense because Webster is having a pretty good season for the New York Giants. Corey Webster is the best corner back on the Giants defense and has (6) interceptions; however, the secondary sometimes struggle to contain their opposing receivers from having a huge game. Now, he will be faced against one of the best receivers in the NFL in Roddy White. White lead the team in receiving with (1296) receiving yards and (8) touchdown receptions.  Despite the struggles against some of the best receivers in the game today, Webster can still make a huge impact on a football game for the Giants defense. For the Falcons, Roddy White can't drop any clutch passes in this playoff game or that could be deadly to the passing attack. White is looking to have a huge playoff performance for the first time in his career. In the past two playoff losses, White caught a TD reception; however, it was after the Falcons were behind in the game. This match-up could be a factor in determining the winner of the playoff game on Sunday.




4. Julio Jones vs Aaron Ross:

Julio Jones TD reception vs Colts
(USAToday.com)

This match-up will be very intriguing to the Falcons passing offense because Ross have struggled against some of the best receivers in the NFL this season. Ross allowed 100 yards receiving against Patriots WR Wes Welker and Saints WR Marques Colston.Now, he will be matched up with the Falcons explosive rookie receiver in Julio Jones. Jones was second on the Falcons in receiving with (959) receiving yards and (8) touchdown receptions. The Giants secondary have struggled at times to defend receivers with the play-making ability similar to Julio Jones as they face Dez Bryant twice a year.Matt Ryan will use this match-up often throughout the game and he must also be cautious with his throws because Ross made (4) interceptions as well this season. Despite the struggles against some of the best receivers in the game today, Ross can still make a huge impact on a football game for the Giants defense. For the Falcons, Julio Jones must remain focused against a stingy New York secondary and Matt Ryan needs to create the opportunities for Julio to use his play-making ability on Sunday afternoon.


5.Hakeem Nicks vs Dunta Robinson:

Hakeem Nicks against the Falcons in 2009
(ESPN.com)

With all of the hype around Victor Cruz and his break-out season for the Giants passing game, Hakeem Nicks quietly put together a great season for New York. Nicks, in his third season, posted a career high in receiving yards (1,192) and scored (8) touchdowns and his match-up will likely be against Dunta Robinson. Defensive coordinator Brian Van Gorder needs to allow Robinson to play man to man coverage on Nicks and prevent him from having any impact in the game for the Giants passing attack. Nicks is also coming off an hamstring injury so the Falcons must do whatever they can to contain him from delivering a huge playoff win for his team. Robinson must take away all of those big plays on Sunday in order to contain their star wide receiver. This match-up could be key in stopping the explosive Giants offense from having a great game. The Falcons secondary is up for a huge test; however, this would be the best match-up for Robinson of the receiving core of Nicks, Cruz, and Mario Manningham.






FINAL PREDICTION:

Falcons celebrate after a win
(AJC.com)

The Falcons will open the game with an effective rushing attack and Michael Turner will have his first career 100-yard rushing game in the post-season. Matt Ryan will go 24-32, 275 yards, and 3 TD passes and the Falcons defense will come up with a huge stop late in the game against the Giants offense to earn a road playoff victory. The road to the Super Bowl starts on Sunday an with the Falcons being a year removed from being the top seed in the NFC, this ball club is a year older and wiser; as for the Giants, I don't feel that the team will have the emotional intensity to win three consecutive games to eliminate their opponents playoff chances. I'll be back with a post-game recap after the Falcons game on Sunday. Until then, RISE UP!!! And my new playoff slogan is: WIN ONE FOR GONZO!


SCORE: FALCONS 27 GIANTS 20